Pro-Western camp which won Beirut vote inherits stable financial situation from current government but still has to deal with huge national debt
Doron Peskin
Published:  06.09.09, 13:09 / Ynet

The general elections held in Lebanon Sunday found the local economy to be doing fairly well, as Beirut's market has proven to be a stable one, despite the global financial crisis and one of the country's worst political crises since the end of the civil war in 1990.
 
The tight electoral race ended with the country's pro-Western coalition declaring victory, after successfully fending off a serious challenge by Shiite militant group Hizbullah and its allies to grab the majority in parliament.
 
The International Monetary Fund has noted an 8% growth in the Lebanese economy in the past 12 months, and has predicted that it will experience further growth of about 4% throughout 2009. Lebanon's international credit rating has gone up accordingly as well.
 
Nevertheless, Lebanon's new government will have a serious debt problem to deal with, as the national debt now stands at 162% of the gross national product (GNP) - $47 billion dollars, with 44% of it being in currency.
 
Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's government has been able to bring the national debt down from 180%, but the question which remains to be seen is whether the new government will be able to continue stabilizing the market.
 
While Lebanese analysts seem unable to answer this question at this time, it is clear to all that political stability is the key to continued growth. 
 
Doron Peskin is head of research at Info-Prod Research (Middle East) Ltd.

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